Climate change will hurt NM water supply

Wed Oct 24

ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. - Researchers at New Mexico's two largest universities are painting a grim picture of New Mexico's economic and agricultural future with predictions that climate change will mean less water in the Rio Grande watershed.
New Mexico State University agricultural economics professor Brian Hurd and University of New Mexico civil engineering professor Julie Coonrod say a wide range of climate models predict warmer weather and a change in precipitation patterns in New Mexico.
The researchers said in a study released Tuesday that those changes could lead to a drop in the basin's water supply by as little as a few percent or as much as one-third. That, in turn, could result in direct and indirect losses ranging between $13 million and $115 million by 2030 and from $21 million to more than $300 million by 2080.
The researchers noted that water is used by people, plants and animals and it's used to grow food and provide economic and ecological benefits.
"Under current climate there is virtually no spare water in New Mexico," the study says. "Imagine a very plausible future ... of significantly less water and at the same time significantly more people."
Most at risk are rural communities and agriculture, said Hurd, who has studied climate change and its economic effects for more than a decade.
According to the study, warmer temperatures could create a shift in precipitation patterns, leading to more rain and less snow. Much of the state's surface water comes from snow melt.
Warmer temperatures also mean earlier snow melts, and the researchers said that means water that makes it to the state's reservoirs has more time to evaporate before the irrigation season.
Hurd and Coonrod said less water means crops will shrink and production will drop, which could irreversibly alter New Mexico's landscape and character.
"Irrigated lands support more than crops," Hurd said. "They provide habitat for wildlife, open space and scenic vistas for the backdrop to New Mexico's thriving art, tourist and recreation economies."
Hurd and Coonrod also said the effects warming and drying would have an impact on the state's forests, rangelands and water quality. Wildfires could happen more often and be more severe, and wildlife and livestock would have less forage.
Also, farmers might experience more pressure to lease or sell their water rights so communities can sustain their populations.
"This is something that has already been happening in the state," Hurd said. "Climate change will only hasten water transfers."
The study says New Mexico's social, economic and environmental systems are highly vulnerable to changes and disruptions to water supplies potentially caused by climate change.
"Thus, the need is highlighted for water users, communities, organizations and institutions in New Mexico at every level and in every sector to begin considering possible adaptive strategies for making better use of their water resources," the study says.