Climate scientists have blamed global warming for a dramatic rise in the number of storms in the Atlantic over the past century. Their study showed the average number of storms that develop every year has doubled since 1905.
They suggest the trend is due to the rise in sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic, a phenomenon with a well-established link to climate change.
Tropical storms are powered by the energy in the oceans they pass over, with warmer sea surfaces leading to more intense storms. In the past century, the surface temperature of the Atlantic has risen by 0.7C.
The increase in storm frequency was most recently visible in 2005, with more than double the average number of storms, including Hurricane Katrina, the most costly natural disaster in US history. It claimed almost 2,000 lives.
In the new study, Greg Holland of the US National Centre for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, calculated the average number and intensity of Atlantic storms over the past century and identified three distinct climate regimes.
The first, between 1905 and 1930, had an average of six major storms a year, four of which were hurricanes, meaning wind speed exceeded 74mph. During the second, from 1931 to 1994, the annual average rose to 10 storms, five of which were hurricanes.
From 1995 to 2005, there were an average of 15 storms a year, eight of which were hurricanes. According to the researchers, this last period has not yet stabilised, so the average could rise still further.
Last year, the hurricane season was less active than 2004 and 2005 because of El Niño, an upwelling of warm water off the coast of Ecuador. But even that activity was higher than a century ago with five hurricanes. The research comes as MPs warn that the government must strengthen climate change targets. They also call for the UK's share of emissions from international aviation and shipping to be included in goals in the draft climate change bill.
The environmental audit committee's report argues: "The government's policy towards the UK's 2050 target is clearly incoherent. The government remains committed to limiting global warming to a rise of 2C; but it also acknowledges that, according to recent scientific research, a cut in UK emissions of 60% by 2050 is now unlikely to be consistent with delivering this goal. This target should be strengthened."
Tim Yeo, the chairman, said the report exposed weaknesses in climate change policy. "Carbon-saving measures have not delivered as much as predicted, and forecasts of emissions have consistently drifted upwards. To make things worse, these forecasts have not been updated often enough."
He added: "The use of international carbon credits must be limited and transparently reported - and not be used as an excuse for inaction at home."
The report praises improvements in joining up the work of different departments, but notes that fiscal policy was excluded from last year's climate change programme review.
"In the future, there must be an integrated approach to climate change policymaking which considers the use of taxes and incentives," it says.
Hilary Benn, the environment secretary, said: "The 60% unilateral commitment is ambitious by any standard and consistent with our leading position internationally. However, we recognise that we will need to keep this goal under review in the light of emerging scientific evidence."
They suggest the trend is due to the rise in sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic, a phenomenon with a well-established link to climate change.
Tropical storms are powered by the energy in the oceans they pass over, with warmer sea surfaces leading to more intense storms. In the past century, the surface temperature of the Atlantic has risen by 0.7C.
The increase in storm frequency was most recently visible in 2005, with more than double the average number of storms, including Hurricane Katrina, the most costly natural disaster in US history. It claimed almost 2,000 lives.
In the new study, Greg Holland of the US National Centre for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, calculated the average number and intensity of Atlantic storms over the past century and identified three distinct climate regimes.
The first, between 1905 and 1930, had an average of six major storms a year, four of which were hurricanes, meaning wind speed exceeded 74mph. During the second, from 1931 to 1994, the annual average rose to 10 storms, five of which were hurricanes.
From 1995 to 2005, there were an average of 15 storms a year, eight of which were hurricanes. According to the researchers, this last period has not yet stabilised, so the average could rise still further.
Last year, the hurricane season was less active than 2004 and 2005 because of El Niño, an upwelling of warm water off the coast of Ecuador. But even that activity was higher than a century ago with five hurricanes. The research comes as MPs warn that the government must strengthen climate change targets. They also call for the UK's share of emissions from international aviation and shipping to be included in goals in the draft climate change bill.
The environmental audit committee's report argues: "The government's policy towards the UK's 2050 target is clearly incoherent. The government remains committed to limiting global warming to a rise of 2C; but it also acknowledges that, according to recent scientific research, a cut in UK emissions of 60% by 2050 is now unlikely to be consistent with delivering this goal. This target should be strengthened."
Tim Yeo, the chairman, said the report exposed weaknesses in climate change policy. "Carbon-saving measures have not delivered as much as predicted, and forecasts of emissions have consistently drifted upwards. To make things worse, these forecasts have not been updated often enough."
He added: "The use of international carbon credits must be limited and transparently reported - and not be used as an excuse for inaction at home."
The report praises improvements in joining up the work of different departments, but notes that fiscal policy was excluded from last year's climate change programme review.
"In the future, there must be an integrated approach to climate change policymaking which considers the use of taxes and incentives," it says.
Hilary Benn, the environment secretary, said: "The 60% unilateral commitment is ambitious by any standard and consistent with our leading position internationally. However, we recognise that we will need to keep this goal under review in the light of emerging scientific evidence."
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