Spotlight: Are we in for stormy weather?

ELIZABETH JOHN
2007/06/30

A single degree rise in temperature will lead to an increase in extreme weather events — from bad floods to longer droughts. And Malaysia is unlikely to be spared.

MALAYSIA can expect more extreme weather in coming years and being prepared isn’t an option — it’s a necessity, say experts.From bad floods to longer droughts — extreme weather events are expected to become more frequent and more intense.And adaptation measures to climate change, including extreme weather events, must be taken over the next 20 to 30 years regardless of whether this is caused by global warming brought on by human activities, or simply by natural changes in the climate.This was the stark message from scientists and planners at a two-day national seminar on the socio-economic impact of extreme weather and climate change.
According to the findings of the latest assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a single degree rise in global average temperature can lead to an increase in extreme weather events, explains Meteorology Department director-general Dr Yap Kok Seng. Over the next two to three decades in the tropical region, where Malaysia lies, the temperature is expected to rise by half or 1°C."So, over that period, we must enhance efforts in disaster risk reduction and find ways to adapt to the coming changes," Yap told delegates.Che Moin Umar, director of the Crisis and Disaster Management Directorate in the Prime Minister’s Department, also stressed the importance of making disaster risk reduction policy, planning and implementation, a part of all development.If surface temperatures increase, Malaysians can also expect thunderstorms to have more energy, Yap says.And in the recent past, the country has also seen growing reports of waterspouts — small weak tornadoes that form over water."The reason for this is yet unknown. Is it global warming or climate variability? Or is it just more people with digital cameras capturing these phenomena? "The fact remains that the phenomenon exists in the country and there is photographic evidence of it."Yap also told delegates that rainfall patterns will change over the coming decades.In the projections towards the end of the century, we will see less rainfall — by about five to 10 per cent — during the wetter months when the Northeast monsoon drenches the country.On the other hand, we’ll see more rainfall in June, July and August, which are traditionally dry months for the country.A study by the National Hydraulic Research Institute of Malaysia (Nahrim) also supports a future of more weather extremes.Nahrim found that there is likely to be a substantial increase in mean monthly rainfall over the north-east coastal regions and over Kelantan and a decrease over Selangor and Johor.Overall, the future outlook study also showed higher maximum and lower minimum rainfall in many sub-regions.This could mean more extreme hydrological conditions, said Nahrim,In terms of river flow, Nahrim also found from its study, that the extremes will be most pronounced in Kelantan, Terengganu, Kedah and Pahang watersheds.These are changes Malaysia can expect to see by the year 2050, the Nahrim study said. Most importantly, the findings point to the need for a review of water resources in peninsular Malaysia.This is because previous studies, which were used as the basis of the current wa ter resources development master plan, had not taken climate change into account. Without adequate measures to deal with floods and droughts, said speakers at the conference, the impact could be severe.