Cover Story: Are we ready for a global meltdown?

Monstrous storms, ravaging seas and molten heat. The scenario for these climate changes may seem like the plot of a Doomsday movie but there are three reasons why they must be taken seriously.
IT’S pretty complicated, but here are three reasons why climate change is the hottest topic around: Food, trade and a rising sea.If a warming world brings more droughts to the countries we buy our food from, what will we eat?If once frozen seas thaw, creating new sea lanes and trade routes, what happens to our ports?And when ice melts, will our thriving coastal communities and sun-kissed beachfront hotels be gobbled up by rising seas?
These are the worries many countries have been wrestling with, says meteorology professor Datuk Dr Azizan Abu Samah.And as science has grown more certain and the ifs of climate change have turned into when, they have begun strategising and preparing."In terms of climate change awareness, we’re quite low. If we don’t start strategising now, we’ll be left behind," he says of Malaysia.We import most of our food, says Azizan, and that doesn’t bode well for food security. This is especially so when the countries we import from could be adversely affected by climate change.Then, there are trade and economic issues to consider.South Korea and Japan have been closely studying the melting of Arctic ice that could open up the Northwest Passage, says the head of Malaysian Antarctica Research Programme.The Passage is a sea lane across the top of Alaska and Canada that is blocked by sea ice for all but one month a year. It is only passable to hulking icebreaker ships.But as global temperature rises and Arctic ice melts, it could open up the Passage and other routes like the Northern Sea Route, for commercial shipping. Recent studies say this could happen anywhere between a few decades and a few years.If it takes place, it could cut a considerable amount of travel time for trade ships from Japan that are headed to Europe, says Azizan."For so long, our ports have benefited from their central position."But if this new route can be used all-year round, would ships still need to pass through our waters? What is our plan then?"But climate change isn’t necessarily all bad news, he’s quick to add. Malaysia should study and respond to impacts facing other parts of the world that could benefit this country.For instance, how will climate change affect soya bean crops, oil palm’s main competitor? So climate change isn’t just for scare-mongering environmentalists or scientists, says Azizan, but also for policy makers. "They need to be interested in this."Making a start on the awareness front is the Maritime Institute of Malaysia.Using the predictions of existing global climate change models, the institute has begun a preliminary assessment of the likely impacts on Malaysia.It hopes to complete this by year-end and carry out a more advanced study in 2008.It will focus specifically on how rising sea levels will affect the country’s coasts and marine resources, says senior researcher Tan Kim Hooi.Working with government, NGOs and universities, the study will look at how many coastal towns and how much infrastructure will be affected by rising seas.Tan, who is with the institute’s Centre for Coastal and Marine Environment, will also study how much land and mangrove forests will be lost and how this will impact fisheries.Finally, they will assess steps the country has taken to address issues and what more needs to be done.But Azizan argues that there’s very little accurate information on regional impacts to begin with.He says the models being used to predict what happens with climate change on a global scale don't do such a good job when it comes to regional scenarios.When applied to the region, the location of increased warming and higher rainfall differ significantly from model to model.This creates a lot of uncertainty and the need for a really good regional model.The model must also be tested against historical data, he says. "If the model can accurately predict what happened with the climate in the past, we can use it to predict the future scenarios with some confidence."But this means we need historical data that stretches back a few thousand years."Countries covered in swathes of ice get this information by coring deep down and studying samples of ice frozen ages ago. The layers are like a diary of weather events of past centuries, explains Azizan.In Malaysia, stalagmites and corals store similar information and should be studied."There’s a lot more that needs to be done and we’ve a long way to go before we can say we are prepared."