OPINION: Dealing with climate change challenges

Since Malaysia is a food-deficit country, a policy framework that deals with the effect of climate change on agricultural development is crucial.

Agriculture and climate are mutually dependent. If the detrimental effects of heat and water stress on crop growth as temperatures rise do not abate, agricultural production is likely to decline in the long term, writes MAD NASIR SHAMSUDIN

A SIGNIFICANT outcome of the recent Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation summit was the Sydney Declaration on climate change, although there were some disagreements on the resolutions between developing and developed economies.Climate change poses challenges for all sectors of the Malaysian economy, particularly those dependent on natural resources such as agriculture and forestry. Despite technological advances in biotechnology, climate is still a key factor in determining agricultural productivity.Agriculture and climate are mutually dependent. Their interactions involve temperature effects, water supply and demand, and fluxes of carbon through the processes of photosynthesis and respiration. Emissions from agricultural sources are believed to account for some 15 per cent of today’s human-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.Climate is important not only in terms of average conditions but also with regard to the frequency and intensity of extreme events, such as floods, droughts and heat spells.
A study by Universiti Putra Malaysia within the Muda Agricultural and Development Authority area indicated that tropospheric ozone is increasing. In cases where it was above the threshold of 40 parts per billion during the growing period of year 2003 and 2004, rice yield dropped significantly to 12 per cent.Studies have consistently shown that overall production in the middle and high latitudes is likely to benefit in the near term (approximately to mid-century), while production systems in the low latitudes are likely to decline.This has implications for world food security, as most developing countries, including Malaysia, are located in lower-latitude regions.The vulnerability of developing countries is related to the growth of crops under current climate conditions nearer their optimum temperature limits and the potential for greater increases in water stress under a warming climate. Developing countries also have fewer resources to develop appropriate measures to counter negative impacts.If the effects of climate change are not abated, agricultural production in the middle and high latitudes is likely to decline in the long term (approximately by the end of 21st century). That would be primarily due to the detrimental effects of heat and water stress on crop growth as temperatures rise.Since Malaysia is a food-deficit country (with an import bill of RM15.4 billion in 2005), a policy framework that deals with the effect of climate change on agricultural development is crucial.Some possible areas in the framework include adaptation strategies to build resilience into production systems; mitigation strategies to reduce or offset greenhouse gas emissions; research and development strategies to enhance the agricultural sector’s capacity to respond to climate change; and awareness and communication strategies to inform decision-making by agricultural producers.Mitigation strategies such as carbon sequestration (binding) in agricultural soils are aimed at reducing the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, countering climatic change. Adaptation strategies such as changes in crop types and management practices are responses that optimise production under changing climate conditions.Mitigation and adaptation responses are synergistic. Mitigation practices can enhance the adaptation potential of agricultural systems.For example, carbon sequestration in agricultural soils leads to more stable soil-water dynamics, enhancing the ability of crops to withstand drought and floods, both of which may increase under changing climate conditions.In addition, many of the strategies proposed for reduction of GHG emissions from agriculture are “best practices": they increase input efficiency while limiting environmental damage.For instance, use of tree shelter belts can help minimise soil erosion and stabilise soil carbon, while mulches added between row crops help conserve soil water, reduce erosion and sequester carbon. Recent studies have shown that improved agriculture practices can help significantly reduce emissions of carbon dioxide by increasing carbon sequestration.The potential contribution of the agricultural sector in reducing GHG emissions at source and removing them by sinks in the agriculture soils largely depends on environmental-friendly land use and management practices.Farmers are largely influenced by the net returns from the farm, agriculture and environmental policies. Although their adoption of these practices has benefits such as increased crop yields, it depends on how much farmers are compensated for the global benefits and taxed for the negative effects of their activities.Farmers may need additional knowledge and resources for such practices. Their land allocation for different purposes and their shift towards adoption of land management practices, on the other hand, are also influenced by policy as well as strategies such as investment in research on soil fertility management, provision of required infrastructure and market facilities.Agricultural soils can both contribute to and be affected by a changing climate. In the past, land management has resulted in considerable depletion of soil organic matter and the release of carbon dioxide. Now, there is the potential to restore soil organic carbon through improved management techniques, enhancing soil structure and fertility, and helping to counter climate change.An important caveat is that the capacity for agricultural soil carbon sequestration is constrained by the amount of carbon lost during the conversion of natural ecosystems to agriculture, so its effectiveness as a mitigating activity for climate change is not unlimited.A policy framework that deals with the planning and implementation of mitigation and adaptation measures in response to global climate change should be co-ordinated. Investments in programmes and research will be needed to assure effectiveness in both activities for Malaysian agriculture. This needs to be explicitly stated in the Malaysian agricultural policy.